Quick answer
How long does rooftop solar take to pay back in Pakistan in 2026?
For new connections, net billing prices every exported unit at about Rs 10 while every grid unit costs the full tariff. That makes self-consumption the whole game: a typical 5 kW home system in Lahore pays back in roughly 5 years under the new rules versus about 2.5 under old net metering. Enter your own bill, city and system below to see your numbers.
Since 9 Feb 2026, new solar users are billed in full for every grid unit and paid only ~Rs 10 for every unit they export. See how long your system really takes to pay back — and how that compares with the old net-metering rules.
At 5 kW sanctioned load you're on the time-of-use tariff (peak Rs 46.85 / off-peak Rs 34.53).
Your 5 kW system in Lahore, before and after NEPRA's 9 Feb 2026 change
Old net metering
Applied before 9 Feb 2026 — grandfathered for 7 years
Payback
2.5 yrs
New net billing
Applies to anyone connecting now
Payback
5.0 yrs
Under the new rules the same system pays back 2.5 years later and nets Rs 13.10 Lac less over 25 years.
Starts at minus the system cost; payback is where the line crosses zero
Monthly generation split into self-used and exported units, against your consumption
Payback under the new net-billing rules
Your system costs Rs 8.00 Lac. Each unit you use yourself saves ~Rs 41; each unit you export earns only Rs 10.
Same household, different sizes. Under net billing, every extra kW mostly exports at Rs 10 — so payback stretches as the system grows.
| Size | Cost | Exported | Payback (old) | Payback (new) | 25-yr net (new) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 kW | Rs 5.20 Lac | 50% | 2.5 yrs | 4.1 yrs | Rs 48.05 Lac |
| 5 kW | Rs 8.00 Lac | 70% | 2.5 yrs | 5.0 yrs | Rs 55.16 Lac |
| 8 kW | Rs 12.20 Lac | 81% | 2.8 yrs | 6.2 yrs | Rs 58.87 Lac |
| 10 kW | Rs 15.00 Lac | 85% | 3.0 yrs | 6.8 yrs | Rs 61.35 Lac |
| 15 kW | Rs 22.00 Lac | 90% | 3.2 yrs | 8.0 yrs | Rs 67.55 Lac |
Going from 3 kW to 15 kW stretches net-billing payback from 4.1 to 8.0 years. Size to what you can use in daylight, not to your roof.
Using more of your own solar is now the whole game
Your plan
Shift 15% of use to daytime
Add a 10 kWh battery
Both
Payback and 25-year net savings at different yearly tariff increases
| Tariff rise / yr | Payback (old) | Payback (new) | 25-yr net (new) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 2.6 yrs | 5.3 yrs | Rs 32.59 Lac |
| 5%(yours) | 2.5 yrs | 5.0 yrs | Rs 55.16 Lac |
| 10% | 2.4 yrs | 4.7 yrs | Rs 1.05 Cr |
Formula. For each month of each year we estimate solar generation, cover your daytime units first, charge an optional battery with the surplus for the evening, and export the rest. Under NEW net billing the imports are billed at the full tariff and exports are credited at the buyback rate; under OLD net metering exports first cancel imports unit-for-unit and only the net surplus is paid (at ~Rs 25.32). Savings = your bill without solar − your bill with solar; payback is when cumulative savings (after upkeep and replacements) cover the system cost.
gen = kW × sunHours × days × PR × (1 − d)^(year−1) · selfUse = min(gen, units × daytime%) + battery · billNew = tariff(units − selfUse) − exported × buyback · billOld = tariff(max(0, imports − exported)) − surplus × NAPP
Assumes. Tariff: uniform residential tariff S.R.O. 279(I)/2026 (applies to LESCO and all ex-WAPDA DISCOs); unprotected consumers pay every unit at the rate of the slab the month lands in, plus a fixed charge per kW of sanctioned load; 5 kW+ sanctioned load is on time-of-use (peak Rs 46.85 / off-peak Rs 34.53, fixed Rs 675/kW on 50% of load); protected/lifeline tiers are not modelled · Taxes: 19.8% on energy + fixed charges (18% GST + ~1.5% electricity duty); FPA/QTA adjustments and income-tax withholding excluded; export credits untaxed · Buyback: Rs 10/kWh, pegged to NAEPP (reported Rs 8.13–11), rising 3%/yr — assumption · Old rules: surplus paid at Rs 25.32/kWh; exports offset off-peak imports first, then peak; the grandfathered 7-year agreement then moves to net billing · Solar resource: EU PVGIS 5.3 (ERA5) monthly irradiation on an optimally tilted, south-facing roof for Lahore (5.9 peak sun hours/day), performance ratio 0.75, degradation 0.5%/yr · Demand is flat across the year (no summer AC peak), split 40% daytime / 20% evening peak / rest at night — assumptions you should adjust · Monthly averages: a battery cycles once a day (usable 90%, round-trip 90%); cloudy-day variation is ignored, which slightly flatters self-consumption · Cost: Rs 100,000 fixed + Rs 140,000/kW + battery; upkeep 1%/yr; inverter replaced in year 12, battery every 12 years, at today's prices · Tariffs rise 5%/yr — an assumption, not a forecast; all rupees are nominal and undiscounted · Net billing caps solar at the sanctioned load, so we raise the sanctioned load to the system size when needed (which raises fixed charges)
Limits. Real bills also carry FPA/QTA adjustments, s.235 income-tax withholding, meter rent and rounding; NEPRA revises tariffs and the NAEPP buyback during the year. PVGIS ERA5 data does not fully capture winter smog in Punjab, shading or dust — installers often quote ~4 units/kW/day for Lahore, a little below the model. Installed-cost and battery prices come from installer/retailer surveys, not an official index; get a written quote. The exact settlement period and GST treatment of exported units under net billing are not modelled.
Educational estimate — not financial, tax or investment advice. Tariffs, buyback rates, taxes and NEPRA rules change; this is an estimate from the published 2026 figures and your assumptions. Get a site survey and written quote before buying.
NEPRA's Prosumer Regulations 2026, notified on 9 February 2026, replaced net metering with net billing for new solar consumers. Imported grid units are now billed at the full slab or time-of-use tariff, while exported units are bought at a rate pegged to the National Average Energy Purchase Price — reported at roughly Rs 8–11 per unit, versus about Rs 25–27 under net metering. New agreements run five years instead of seven.
After the Prime Minister's intervention, NEPRA amended the regulations so that consumers with a valid net-metering agreement as of 9 February 2026 keep the old rate and unit-for-unit netting until that agreement expires. Renewals and all new connections fall under net billing.
Usually yes, but the payback is longer and depends on how much of your solar you use yourself. Every unit you self-consume still saves the full tariff (Rs 35–47 plus tax), while every exported unit earns only about Rs 10. For a typical 500-unit Lahore home a 5 kW system that paid back in about 2.5 years under net metering takes roughly 5 years under net billing in this model.
Not any more. Under net billing, extra panels mostly export at the low buyback rate, so payback stretches as the system grows. Net billing also caps solar at your sanctioned load, and raising the sanctioned load raises fixed charges and can move you onto the time-of-use tariff. Size the system to what you use in daylight.
A battery lets you store daytime surplus and use it in the evening instead of exporting it for about Rs 10 and buying it back for Rs 35–47. That raises self-consumption sharply, but lithium storage costs around Rs 45,000–65,000 per kWh in 2026 and needs replacing, so whether it shortens payback depends on your evening load — the calculator shows both.